Three scaling routes

Cost on the horizontal axis; intelligence on the vertical axis. Black shows the current relationship between cost and intelligence. Purple extends it, green improves efficiency, and blue introduces a new scaling dimension.

Three ways to scale intelligence.

Cost and intelligence

Scaling is central to progress in LLMs. We explore three paths: invest more along existing dimensions, improve computational efficiency, and find new dimensions for growth.

Along the existing path.

Invest more. Raise the ceiling.

Increasing model parameters, training data, and reasoning effort can extend capabilities along an existing scaling path. As returns diminish, each further gain requires greater investment.

Parameters+Data+Reasoning

Better trade-off.

The same capability, at lower cost.

Improving efficiency means reaching comparable capabilities with fewer resources. Quantization, sparse attention, speculative decoding, and adaptive compute offer different ways to reduce memory use, computation, or latency.

Find a new path.

Find a new scaling dimension.

Model size and data scale have long driven LLM progress. Models such as o1 highlighted another dimension: test-time compute. We explore further possibilities, including loop depth, model adaptivity, and context information density.